Sabermetric Ministry of Truth

Tangotiger on January 4, 2012:

Nate Silver had a headline that read: Why I’d Bet on Santorum (and Against My Model)

I thought: NO!!!! Nate, why? Why?

The reason should be clear: why HAVE a model that includes all the parameters you deem relevant, if you then throw away the model if you don’t like the results?

So, I really wish that those people who have forecasting models to NOT hedge their bets here. Either you have a model or you don’t.

Tangotiger on February 4, 2012:

Brian doesn’t blindly follow his off-the-wall forecast. Good for him.

You got that, everyone? Don’t disregard your model if you don’t like the results and don’t put stock in the crazy forecasts from your model.

About these ads

3 responses to “Sabermetric Ministry of Truth

  1. Tom seems almost emotional back on January 4th. I can’t read these links at work. Was there more context to this? I think he is correct in his more recent statemnt. Models are only simplifications of reality and you can’t always rely on them. Remember the Phillips curve where there was a negative correllation between unemployment and inflation? That fell apart in the Seventies.

  2. Brian Cartwright

    Meanwhile, Santorum swept yesterday’s primaries.

  3. I thought everyone knew that Nate’s model wasn’t meant to mimic reality, but a platform to become a political shill?


Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s