Sabermetric Ministry of Truth

Tangotiger on January 4, 2012:

Nate Silver had a headline that read: Why I’d Bet on Santorum (and Against My Model)

I thought: NO!!!! Nate, why? Why?

The reason should be clear: why HAVE a model that includes all the parameters you deem relevant, if you then throw away the model if you don’t like the results?

So, I really wish that those people who have forecasting models to NOT hedge their bets here. Either you have a model or you don’t.

Tangotiger on February 4, 2012:

Brian doesn’t blindly follow his off-the-wall forecast. Good for him.

You got that, everyone? Don’t disregard your model if you don’t like the results and don’t put stock in the crazy forecasts from your model.


3 responses to “Sabermetric Ministry of Truth

  1. Tom seems almost emotional back on January 4th. I can’t read these links at work. Was there more context to this? I think he is correct in his more recent statemnt. Models are only simplifications of reality and you can’t always rely on them. Remember the Phillips curve where there was a negative correllation between unemployment and inflation? That fell apart in the Seventies.

  2. Brian Cartwright

    Meanwhile, Santorum swept yesterday’s primaries.

  3. I thought everyone knew that Nate’s model wasn’t meant to mimic reality, but a platform to become a political shill?


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