Predicting Strikeouts with Wh- zzzzz…

In his article today throwing down the gauntlet against FanGraphs (and their Swartzianly-boring writers), Matt Swartz penned some of his finest prose yet:

For every one percentage point above average in the previous year’s strikeout rate, the following year’s strikeout rate is likely to be about 0.73 percentage points above average. However, for pitchers with the same strikeout rate the previous year, a pitcher with one percentage point higher swinging-strike rate only will have a 0.12 percentage point higher strikeout rate, which is not statistically significant.


He even included six really killer tables, including something I can only call a Super Table:

The Super Table

Even more fascinating!

But then Tango had to go and kind of spoil the fun.

Anyway, BP was really strong today, as Will F**king Carroll led with “One of the hardest things I have to do is explaining [sic] what I do.” How about something like, “I write about sports injuries”? But that wouldn’t capture that certain je ne sais quoi of Under The Knife.

He went on to say, “The outright arrogance of some statheads and the inability to market any of the tools they’ve developed have held things back.” Can’t… write… irony… too great.


4 responses to “Predicting Strikeouts with Wh- zzzzz…

  1. I don’t think I’ll ever be able to look at a Will Carroll article and not giggle at least once

    Does he have any idea how the rest of the world sees him? I mean he has to know but then just decide to keep on trucking anyway, right?

  2. Canary Truncated Saxaphone



    Amazingly, that’s among the best things FanGraphs has posted lately.

    Seriously though, you wrote a post saying Greinke’s BABIP has been consistent. Just terrible. You might as well have just posted a link to his player page.

    • I had a similar reaction. It’s obvious Anderson runs down Greinke’s career WAR only because the post would be 20 words long otherwise: “Heh, look: Zach Greinke’s BABIP has been really similar every year since 2006. Oh and nevermind about 2004 and 2005.”

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