Monthly Archives: August 2010

I Really Hope Joe Pawlikowski Is Joking

He needed to share this with the world.

This chick is turning lots of heads.

A girl on the street

Click the image for a zoomed-in version.

I sure hope he knows this girl or I’m missing out on something. Because otherwise, this is too creepy for words.

Why Does Tangotiger Salivate over Kristi Dosh?

July 16, 2010:

Ideally, for [Dosh’s] new blog, there’d be [a picture] of her in a red dress, kicking her feet up, drinking red wine at a typewriter.

Later in the same thread:

Ahhh… well, I guess those images are blocked at the office.  Usually it’s p-rn and blogspot.com that is blocked, and, I guess [Dosh’s] picture fit into one of those categories.

He’s also posted the infamous “red dress” picture three times now and wanted to in the thread linked above, but his work internet filter prevented him from doing so.

The red dress picture is not this one:

Kristi Dosh

Someone explain this obsession to me, especially since other SABR kittens are out there.

Update: I think this roman à clef from Dosh’s fiction writing blog (WTF?) explains it all.

à

Lest We Forget

James Click, February 2, 2006:

Lest we forget, this is only PECOTA’s third season; wait until you see where BP is three years from now.

evo34, February 27, 2010:

So let’s take a look at how PECOTA projects the top five hitting prospects in baseball to “grow” over the next five years [TAv taken from 10-year forecast]:

Jason Heyward (age 20):
2010: .282
2011: .276
2012: .277
2013: .276
2014: .271

Mike Stanton (age 20):
2010: .265
2011: .264
2012: .265
2013: .259
2014: .257

Desmond Jennings (23 years old):
2010: .269
2011: .269
2012: .278
2013: .273
2014: .270

Buster Posey (22 years old):
2010: .266
2011: .269
2012: .270
2013: .269
2014: .268

Pedro Alvarez (23 years old):
2010: .266
2011: .260
2012: .269
2013: .258
2014: .259

So, basically none of the top five prospects in baseball are projected to improve over the next five years. Apparently, each has already peaked as a mediocre MLB regular. Anyone who has used PECOTA projections over the years will understand how massively different these projections look than those of years past. They (Pease et al.) have essentially diluted the informational content out of prospect projecions to the point where all major prospects are projected to follow an eerily similar career path.

In short, this is worse than New Coke. Someone has significantly changed the algorithm (intentional or not), and there is no documentation of what has changed or why. There is simply no way to trust any of the PECOTA projections for this season — esp. those of prospects. This is extremely unfortunate as long-term projections were the last remaining competitive advantage BP had over competing forecast services (for data forecasts, not editorial content). A full article on this debacle (not another “Unfiltered” side-note) is warranted.

I am not trying to bash BP as much as I am expressing my personal disappointment at not having source for accurate long-term prospect projections for the first season in a very long time. I honestly don’t know of anyone else who takes a numerical approach to evaluating minor leaguers. If anyone does, please post.

So PECOTA makes terrible projections for the top position player prospects and thus PECOTA’s own value falls in a very Heyward’s-career-according-to-PECOTA way. What irony.

Twitter WAR (Wordplay!)

First, Will F**king Carroll noticed something strange about WAR:

WAR says Aubrey Huff better than Albert Pujols. Someone explain this to me.

Then R.J. Anderson noticed something strange about WARP:

WARP says it too; maybe Huff is better marketed

Finally, Patrick Sullivan settles the issue:

Hey if Jenn Sturger thinks Pujols is having the better year, it's good enough for me.